NOAA NCEP EMC CMB GLOBAL Reyn_SmithOIv1 weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (click on map for data description, more data and other viewing options)

Motivation:  While the present-day dynamics of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are broadly understood, predictability is limited, the long-term natural variability is poorly known, and the effect of greenhouse warming on the tropical ocean-atmosphere system is currently in much debate. In this course, we will discuss the following topics.

1. Physics of ENSO: Overview of ENSO theory, modern observations and phenomenology, predictive modeling, and global impacts.
2. Paleoclimatology of ENSO: How has ENSO operated under different climatic mean states?  Can ENSO physics explain paleoclimatic observations on a variety of time scales?  Overview and synthesis of evidence from a range of proxy observations and time scales.
3. ENSO in the greenhouse world: How is ENSO expected to evolve as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase?  We will draw on the prior two topics and on modeling studies of ENSO under enhanced CO2 conditions, we will conclude with a discussion of how we expect ENSO to evolve in the next 50-100 years.

Course Goals:

1. To give students a solid grounding in the study of ENSO, from classic work to late breaking science.
   
2. To teach students to critically read the climate dynamics and paleoclimatology literature.
   
3. To gain experience in communicating ideas, both your own and those of others, and in debating controversial issues.
   
4. To think about how paleoclimate data might be used to resolve outstanding questions about the modern ENSO.
   
5. To think about how modern ENSO theory might be used to understand the rapidly growing network of high quality paleoclimate observations from ENSO-affected regions.

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Logistics

Instructor: Michael Evans , Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research , 214 W. Stadium .  ph 626-2897; email: mevans@ltrr.arizona.edu .
Office hours to be determined or by appointment.  Call or write for more information.  I will try to answer emails within 24 hours.

Location and Time: (Intro meeting) Wednesday, January 15th, 2003, Tree-Ring Lab-West Seminar Room (Rm. 20), 4pm.
Regular Meeting Time: Wednesdays, 3-4:30pm.  Occasionally we may go until 5pm but we'll try not to.

Registration info:call # 21685, RSVP: call 884-7787.  Note: there are multiple "modules" of GEOS 595E taught each semester; you may register for 1-3 units which comprises the module described here, and/or for other modules.  See the Dendrochronology Colloquium webpage for this semester's offerings.

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Prerequisite:An interest in the science of global climate change. Prior or current coursework in oceanography, meteorology and climatology will be helpful, but we will begin with fundamentals.

Additional reading and course materials: I would like to provide them electronically here; alternatively as handouts in class.  Please let me know if computer and Internet access is a problem for you.

Workload: A commitment to reading the assigned literature (approximately 4-6 hrs/week) and active participation in discussions is absolutely essential. The first section of the course will involve reading classic papers on ENSO dynamics, and studying the modern observations via on-line data. Section 2 will require critical reading of selections from the current paleoclimate literature. Section 3 will require students to shape and lead one or more mini-lectures/discussions among class participants.I will lecture on occasion, but otherwise, students will trade off presenting the week's topics.  Depending on the number of participants, expect to lead class at least twice during the semester.  Suggestions for organizing your presentations are here.  A grading rubric (what I expect from you in class) is here.

Expectations:  For 2 units of credit, students will read the literature assigned for class and participate actively in discussions; students will lead class at least twice, and preferably three times, during the course of the semester.  See the evaluation rubric for what I expect from your participation in the course.  I will provide constructive feedback on your work throughout the semester to help you improve.

For 3 units of credit: In addition to the 2-unit requirements, an 8-10 page term paper, including critical discussion of current literature, on a topic agreed to in advance with the instructor, will be required.

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Syllabus (subject to revision)
 

When	Big Picture	Topic	Reading Assignment	discussion leader
January 15th	The Big Picture	Organizational meeting	1.  bookmark course website 2.  return class survey 3.  email me which discussions you'd like to lead	MNE
January 22nd	Present-day ENSO	Phenomenology	Cane (1983) Rasmusson and Wallace (1983) scanned transparencies are here (665kb pdf)	MNE
January 29th		coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics	Bjerknes (1969) Barsugli's delayed oscillator animation scanned transparencies are here (1.9Mb pdf)	MNE
Note different date and time: February 6th, 10-11:30am, TRL-W seminar room 20		Predictive Modeling; 2002-3 event	Zebiak and Cane (1987) Scanned transparency is here (796kb pdf)	Kevin A.
February 12th		Modern ENSO theory and observations; 2002-3 event	McPhaden (1999) TAO array data exercise scanned transparencies are here (1.1Mb)	Tom D.
February 19th		Teleconnection Theory and observations	Tribbia (1991) Teleconnection data exercise scanned transparencies are here (4.4Mb)	MNE
February 26th		Regional Teleconnections: Observations	Redmond and Koch (1991)	Mike C.
March 5th, 3pm Joint LTRR/ISPE Seminar Location: ISPE Seminar Room, 715 N. Park Ave., 2nd Floor		Pacific-North American Climate Variability and Predictability	suggested reading: Cayan et al. (2001) Gershunov et al. (2000)	Sasha Gershunov (UCSD/Scripps)
March 12th	Paleoclimatology of ENSO	Past few hundred years	Kaplan et al. (1998); Stahle et al. (1998) (For your own interest): Proxy intercomparison exercise  | NINO3 | SOI scanned transparencies are here (1.4Mb)	Kevin A./Mike C.
March 19th	Spring Break - no class
March 26th		Last Glacial Maximum: Paradigm	Fedorov and Philander (2000); optional: Fedorov and Philander (2001) scanned transparencies are here (5Mb).	MNE
April 2th		Last Glacial Maximum: Models	Otto-Bliesner et al. (2003); Clement et al. (1999)	Tom D./Mike C.
April 9th		Last Glacial Maximum: Observations	Mix et al. (1999); Koutavas et al. (2002); Tudhope et al. (2001) Tim and Kevin's presentation slides are here (3Mb powerpoint file).	Tim S./Kevin A.
April 16th	ENSO in a Greenhouse World	Observations: past century	Cane et al. (1997)	Tom D.
April 23rd		Simple model: forced chaos	Khatiwala et al. (2001)	Tim S.
April 30th		GCM studies	Timmerman et al. (1999); for background, see Bacher et al. (1998) and Dai et al. (2001)	Tim S.
May 7th	The Big Picture	Last class - Wrap up.		Class

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