NATS101 Introduction to Global Change Section 16

Course Notes


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4


Aug 21:  Lecture notes shown in class are here.  No slides drawn.



Aug 23:  According to Cerceo, a huge volcanic eruption in 535 AD and the consequent catastrophic climate effects should make us realize that some climatic disasters are out of our control, but the consequences of using fossil fuels are something we have a better chance of affecting.

Our Place in the Universe
Scientific Notation- a shorthand way of compactly writing very large or very small numbers; the power to which “10” is raised in scientific notation tells us how many decimal places to move to the left or right to write a number in expanded notation.

The origin, history and processes in the Universe and the material in our planet are embodied in the Periodic Table of the Elements
   Characteristics of matter

            All matter is made of small particles (atoms and their constituents)

            Atoms of the same element have similar chemical properties

            Atoms are not divided by chemical reactions

            Chemical reactions involve electrons; nuclear reactions involve protons/neutrons

   Periodic Table

            Elements arranged according to increasing Atomic Number (number of protons).

            (This arrangement is also related to filling of electrons in discrete electron “shells”)

            Each element has name and 1- or 2-letter shorthand notation.

            When an atom is “neutral”, it will have an equal number of protons (+) in nucleus and electrons (-) orbiting nucleus.  Neutrons (no charge) also can reside in nucleus at the center of atoms.

    Only H and He (the most abundant elements in the Universe) were formed in the "Big Bang" 13-15 billion years ago; evidence of the Big Bang event is seen in the galaxies moving away from us at high speeds; the more distant the galaxy, the faster it is moving from away from us; Wavelengths (short wavelengths correspond to low pitch for sound waves, and red color for visible light waves; long wavelengths correspond to high pitch for sound waves, and purple color for visible light waves; see "electromagnetic radiation"); The “Red Shift” associated with the “Doppler Effect” indicates galaxies are moving away from us at high speed.

   Elements from lithium (Li) to iron (Fe) (also He) produced in the interior of normal stars by “fusion” processes, i.e., lighter elements being combined to manufacture heavier elements.  For example, in our Sun, fusion takes place converting 4 hydrogen atoms (1 proton in each nucleus = 4 nuclear particles) to one helium atom (2 protons and 2 neutrons in nucleus= 4 nuclear particles); the mass of the helium atom is less than the 4 hydrogens, so the difference in mass is what was converted to energy that contributes to the internal heat of the Sun (E=mc2).  The energy from such nuclear reactions (involving nuclei of atoms) >> energy from chemical reactions (involving electrons of atoms); The fusion taking place in the Sun and other stars represents a tremendous energy source, and research has been directed at trying to promote controlled fusion reactions on Earth as a limitless source of energy (The world already has many fission reactors in which large radioactive elements such as uranium, decay and release energy)

   Elements up to Iron can be produced by fusion because energy is released; Elements beyond (heavier than) iron cannot be produced by fusion, but can be produced by high fluxes of neutrons that are captured in the nuclei of existing atoms; such neutron fluxes occur in interior of massive stars and when stars explode (supernova).

   Origin of Solar System

            There was about 10 billion years between the Big Bang and the origin of our Solar (Sun) system (which formed about 4.6 billion years ago)

            Our solar system is made of all the elements of the Periodic Table but only He is being produced in our solar system currently (in the Sun); therefore all of the elements had to have been produced in the 10 billion years before the solar system was formed (our system is from the remnants of other stars)

            Solar Nebula Hypothesis has solar system forming from a rotating ball of dust and gases that flattened to a disk shape.  Most of the mass was in the center and the pressure and temperature in that environment ignited hydrogen “burning” (fusion).

            Matter was distributed in the solar system such that the internal 4 planet are more dense and rocky “terrestrial” planets and the outer “Jovian” planets are lower density, “icy” planets composed of lighter elements/frozen gases. There are also satellite planets (moons) orbiting around many of these planets, such as Titan. Several hundred other planets have been observed around other distant stars, but most are quite different than ours (hotter and much, much larger!)

 


Aug 28: Lecture notes shown in class are here.  Slides drawn in class are here.

Aug 30: Lecture notes shown in class are here.  Slides drawn in class are here.


Sept. 4:

Hand back in-class exercise #1 (map) and #2 (greenhouse effect)

REMINDER: Your term paper topic is due next Thursday (Sept. 13)- A title with one or two sentences of description/explanation should be OK.  Try to be explicit and focused; Also quiz next Thursday

REVIEW: Wien’s Law (λpeak=2880/TK) determines the peak wavelength and at Earth’s temperature (15ºC, 288K) the peak of emitted radiation is at 10um (10 micrometers, infrared), whereas at Sun’s temperature (6000K) the peak of the emitted radiation is at 0.5um (0.5 micrometers, visible).

REVIEW: major atmospheric gases (N2, O2, Ar =most abundant); and important minor atmospheric gases (CO2 and H2O vapor =key contributors to greenhouse effect and to life). Sources (mechanism/process for gas getting into atmosphere), sinks (mechanism for removing gas from atmosphere); for example, photosynthesis is a sink to remove CO2 from the atmosphere (CO2 + H2O  => CH2O + O2); respiration (the reverse reaction of  photosynthesis) is a mechanism (sink) to put CO2 into the atmosphere, and to remove oxygen from the atmosphere (CH2O + O2 => CO2 + H2O)  The same equation can likewise represent combustion processes that also remove oxygen from the atmosphere (sink) or put CO2 into the atmosphere. 

Demonstration of 4 atmospheric gases (N2, H2O, CO2 and O2), some in unusual (cold) forms.

Demonstration of the relationship of temperature, pressure and volume for gases, known as the “universal gas law” => the product of volume x temperature is proportional to temperature (PV=nRT), ie, if temperature is decreased, you will reduce pressure and/or volume, and conversely if temperature is increased, you will increase pressure and/or volume.

Required reading on Earth reaching a “tipping point” (a point of no return to a planet with which we are not familiar)- Washington Post Jan. 29, 2006

Clip of AIT on Roger Revelle and CO2 measurements.

Homework to prepare before Thursday (Sept. 6) will be sent out on class Listerve.

Sept. 6:

Quiz 1 handed back.

Records of Global Change

1) Global CO2 emissions.  These are currently about 8,000 million metric tons of carbon [=8,000,000,000 tons C= 8 Gigatons(Gt C)= 8 billion tons C= 8 x 109 tons C)].  This CO2 comes from oil, coal, natural gas, “flaring” and cement manufacture.

These emission have increased since the beginning of the “Industrial Revolution” around 1800.

China and the US are now responsible for about the same amount of emissions (1.8 Gt C each), but the per capita production in China is about 1 ton per person, but in US it is 5.5 t C/person)

2) Atmospheric CO2.  Direct CO2 measurements (“the most important graph of the 20th Century”), beginning with Keeling’s measurement site established in Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and providing continuous measurements since 1958; now a world-wide network. Current CO2 concentration is almost 385 ppm (part per million)- about 33% increase since 1958.  The rate of increase has been variable over this time period, related to sources and sinks.  Analysis of gas in ice cores tells us the pre-Industrial Revolution concentration of CO2 was about 280 ppm. Current concentration is the highest it has been in the last million years, but in geologic history there have been times when atmospheric CO2 has been much higher than today.

3) Sea ice.  Current sea ice extent is the smallest of the record several decades long.

4) Retreat of glaciers world-wide.

5) Instrumental climate records.  The longest world-wide temperature records go back to 1659 in United Kingdom [1731 in US (Philadelphia)]; rainfall records go back 1617 in United Kingdom [1738 in US (Charleston, SC)].  Early temperature measurements are often not suitable for climate assessment because various scales were used, and placement might have been in direct sunlight or indoors (both of which are modern no-no’s).

Examination of temperature records from around the US brought in by students; some lessons:

(A)  A site will have a “mean” temperature, but the actual average temperature from one year to the next is highly variable- In fact, rarely is the average temperature of any year equal to the mean of many years

(B)   The trends of temperature at different sites are often not the same, and some stations may show an increasing temperature trends, but others show a decreasing trend.

(C)   Depending on what part of the temperature record from a single station you look at, the trend may be different, even increasing in one time interval and decreasing in another.

(D)  Therefore regional temperature mean trends (such as that for the US) must average over many stations; global means must average over even more.


Sept. 11: Lecture notes shown in class are here.  The geostrophic balance animation is here.  The coriolis effect java applet is here.  Tank experiment #1 is here.  Tank Experiment #2 is here.  Slides drawn in class are here.  The activity we did in class is linked in the Syllabus/Schedule for this week.  Sample Quiz 2 is also linked in the Syllabus/Schedule for this week.

Sept 13: Lecture notes shown in class are here.  A link to the movie of high resolution ocean model output (from the Navy HYCOM model) is here. Link to Landsea (May 1, 2007 EOS) on historical hurricane frequencies is here.  Link to Holland (Sept 4, 2007 EOS) on changes in numbers of landfalling hurricanes is here.  Link to Mann et al. (Sept. 4, 2007 EOS) reply to Landsea's article is here.


Sept. 18:

Activities 3 and 5 handed back.

Fire alarm at about 20 minutes into class; we reassembled when alarm ended

US “instrumental” temperature records of the last 120 years shows rising temperature but not as steeply rising as global temperatures over that period.  The greatest rise seems to be at high latitudes, which could have drastic consequences to Earth’s energy budget.

“Proxy” records of global change are used to estimate past climate (e.g., temperature or moisture)- tree rings, pollen, packrat middens, ice cores (high and low latitude), marine (ocean) and lake sediment cores (and microscopic shells), corals, speleothems (stalagmites), etc.

Earth has long history of warm and cool periods with the last 70 million years (since the demise of the dinosaurs) generally cool, but a series of alternating and very regular short interglacial (warm) periods and longer cold periods over the last 2 million years. The last interglacial period about 130 million years ago was warmer than the current interglacial.

Highest temperatures in last 180 million years estimated to have occurred about 120 million years ago when global temperature may have been at least 10C higher than present.

“Hockey stick” curve has been used to describe estimated temperature changes over the past 1000 years (slowly cooling from 1000 to 1900 and then rapid rise in temperature after 1900), but proxy records get fewer as we go back further during this time frame.  Little Ice age corresponds to coolest conditions of the millennium (about 1500 to 1850AD), and Medieval Warm Period (about 1000AD)

Newton’s Laws

            1st- Every object persists in a state of rest or in uniform motion in a straight line

unless acted on by an external force to change that state.

            2nd- The change in velocity (= acceleration) with which an object moves is

                                    directly proportional to force applied and inversely proportional to the

                                    mass of the object (a=F/m)

3rd- Every action has an equal and opposite reaction (“conservation of

            momentum” follows from this)

            Law of Universal Gravitation- any and all objects exert a force of attraction

                                    between them proportional to the product of their masses and inversely to

                                    the distance between them squared. (F= G x (m1 x m2)/r2)

Sept. 20:

Quiz 2 handed back; Activity 6 (hydrologic cycle) was done at the end of class

Intro to water cycle (driven by solar energy)- reservoirs (or pools where water resides, represented by the amount [mass, volume] present), and fluxes (or flows/exchange processes represented by movement of water between reservoirs)  Most water in ocean reservoir, most fresh water locked up in ice cap (and glacier) reservoir, more fresh water in groundwater than surface water (lakes and streams).   Fluxes between water reservoirs, eg, runoff is the primary direct flux between continents and ocean, precipitation transfers water from atmosphere to land or ocean, evapotranspiration is the combination of evaporation from land and transpiration from land plants.

Streamflow can be measured with stream gage instruments back into the 20th Century, but tree rings can be used to reconstruct streamflow back hundreds of years.

Humidity in the atmospheric reservoir of the water cycle can be measured with a psycrometer, which has the bulb of one thermometer (the “wet-bulb thermometer”) covered with a moistened cloth.  The larger the difference between the “dry-bulb” thermometer and “wet-bulb thermometer”, the lower the humidity in the air- WHY? (evaporation and cooling).  Warmer air can “hold” more humidity- an increase in global temperature could result in more evaporation and more water vapor in the atmosphere, but relative humidity would not necessarily change because higher temps would mean more water-vapor holding capacity.  Try USA Today and USA Today2 for more explanation. (TempCelsius = [TempFahrenheit – 32) x 5/9]

Pattern of latitude precipitation- highest at equator, and secondary peaks at about 45-55° latitude; minima at about 30° and 90° latitude (related to solar heating and general circulation)

With global temperature increase, the hydrologic cycle can be affected. Precipitation will change but not necessarily uniformly- in some places, more precipitation is forecast and others less.  Where less, this could result in increasing incidence of drought such as conditions in the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. 

Regions of the US have different circumstances with respect to population trends, water sources, and water quality, but the anticipated climate changes can influence many factors such as the amount of snowfall, retention of mountain snow and timing of melting, frequency of floods, etc.

In the US Southwest, the Colorado River system is a major source of water for 7 states and Mexico.  It was allocated to these parties by legal agreements in the first half of the 20th Century based on measurement of water flow in the Colorado River for the early decades of the century.  Tree-ring reconstructions suggest the period of measurement was the highest flow in the last 400 years, so these parties cannot depend on the availability of 17.5 million acre feet for their use.

The demise of Lake Chad illustrates how climate change can be important in the face of the demands of a large, growing population (“Lake Chad has been the source of water for massive irrigation projects. In addition, the region has suffered from an increasingly dry climate, experiencing a significant decline in rainfall since the early 1960's.”- NOAA)


Sept. 25Lecture notes shown in class are here.  Slides drawn in class are here.


Sept. 27:  Lecture notes shown in class are here.  Slides drawn in class are here.



Oct. 2:

A measure of the amount of material dissolved in water is TDS (total dissolved solids)- it ranges from 0 parts per million (pure distilled water) to Tucson water (300-700 ppm), to ocean water (35,000 ppm equivalent to 35ppt), to Dead Sea (200,000 ppm)

Oceans

Surface currents- driven by wind; flow in semicircular patterns known as "gyres"; high pressure drives air circulation that drives gyres; direction of circulation is different in the North and South hemispheres.  Items inadvertently thrown in ocean can serve to inform us about ocean circulation.

Gulf Stream provides mild climate of British Isles and Scandinavia (compared to more extreme climate of Virginia to Massachusetts where first European settlers arrived)

Upwelling” of nutrient-rich deep water along S. American coast supports food webs (fisheries along coastal Peru are dependent on upwelling); the food web is supported at its base by photosynthesis (CO2 + H2O in the presence of chlorophyll and with energy from sunlight => CH2O + O2).  The CH2O product is organic matter that is important both with respect to mass and stored energy. Respiration, combustion, and decomposition are mechanisms that represent the reverse reaction: CO2+H2O => CH2O + O2. 

El Niño and currents in S. Pacific

El Niño tends to recur in irregularly from 2-7 years, and strength varies among events.

It is related to atmospheric and ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean (see diagrams at http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html)

Evidence for El Niño events

Thick, warm water pooled on east side of Pacific

Reduced upwelling off S. American coast and fishing crash

Higher sea level in east Pacific than west

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) negative (the atmospheric pressure at Darwin is greater than Tahiti)

Westerly winds (west to east winds) in Pacific near equator

High precipitation in Ecuador/Peru; Low precipitation in Australia/Indonesia

During La Niña events conditions are opposite of those listed above.

“ENSO” (El Niño/Southern Oscillation)- during El Niño events, there is increased precipitation along Peru and Ecuador (but there is reduced precipitation in the western Pacific and the Amazon).  Thus the rain forests of the Amazon and Indonesia are ripe for fires during El Niños (the opposite occurs during La Niñas)

Teleconnections” are the influence of El Niño outside of the confines of the Pacific Ocean Basin; these include statistical correlations of El Niño with climate of diverse locales such as climate effects in the US Southeast and Northeast, eastern S. America (including the Amazon Basin), India, and Africa.

El Niño has tended to be more frequent and stronger after the mid-1970s, whereas La Niña tended to dominate in the decades prior, suggesting some decadal periodicity; consequences of “El Niños of the Century” (1982-83 & 1997-98) in the western US (lower area burned, but in the next few years when there is La Niña the area burned is very large).

Exercise 8 involving improving your wording in formal writing.


Oct. 4:

More writing stuff; Remember, from now to the end of the semester, improper use of “due to”, “since”, “while”, or “that/which” on any formal writing activity (including quizzes/mid-term/term paper) will automatically result in a deduction of 5% of the total value of the exercise for each occurrence within the writing product.

Deep-ocean currents and the Ocean Conveyor Belt

            Requires dense water to start cycle by sinking

            Dense water achieved by (1) cooling or (2) increase in salinity through (2a) evaporation

or (2b) freezing

Salinity can be measured using electrical conductivity, because water with more ions (cations and anions) conducts electricity more readily than water with lower ionic concentration.

Densest water forms in far North Atlantic and far South Atlantic areas of ocean, where there are cold temperatures and salinity greater than 35permil (35 parts per thousand=the average of ocean water)

The excess salinity in N. Atlantic contributes to sinking of dense water that then moves as a deep current through the S. Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean before rising and returning as a warm-water surface current back to the N. Atlantic (to replace water that has sunk to the deep currents)

Thermohaline circulation transports heat and salinity (salt) as nature tries to even out these imbalances around the world ocean.

There may have been times in the past, and maybe in the future, where the thermohaline circulation could slow or stop, with important climate consequences.  Younger Dryas was an abrupt return to cold conditions about 12,000 years ago (10,000 radiocarbon years), after the last ice age appeared to end; evidence is seen in Calcium concentration of ice cores; it was likely caused by a shift in meltwater discharge from the Gulf of Mexico to the N. Atlantic as melting N. American glaciers retreated.  It appears to have been teleconnected world-wide, probably by its influence on suppressing thermohaline circulation. This is an example of “abrupt climate change”

The story of tree rings and Younger Dryas in central N. America

 


 Oct 9:  Catch-up and Wrap-up

IPCC predicts that it is very likely that N. Atlantic thermohaline circulation will slow down but unlikely we will experience and abrupt climate transisiton by 2100 because the warming in the region associated with the increasing greenhouse gases.

Between 1970 and 2000 there are already measurements suggesting a "freshening" of the Atlantic.


Mike's lecture slides are here.


Oct. 16:

Biosphere "biotic components"- trophic (nourishment) levels from bottom to top: (1)-primary producers=autotrophs; (2)-primary consumers=herbivores (=heterotrophs); (3)-secondary consumers=carnivores (also =heterotrophs) and additionally a group (4)-decomposers. “Omnivores” may eat at more than one trophic level.

These can be altered by global climate change or other influences/events. For example:

1. Change in species (abundance or composition; pioneering, invasion and extinction)

2. Change timing of species development or activity; loss of breeding habitat

3. Contribute to emigration or adaptive response

4. Catastrophic change- wildfire and frequency

Food chains and food webs:

90% loss of energy (and biomass) going from one trophic level to the next level above it.  In other words, each trophic level has about 10 times the mass/energy as the trophic level above it.

Discussion of energy consequences of "eating low" on the food chain.

Biosphere "abiotic components"- climate, nutrients (eg, C,O,H,N,S), sunlight, water

Abiotic and biotic components comprise biosystems (ecosystems)

Large, easily identified community units are known as "biomes"; interaction of biota and climate on a regional scale. Biomes around the world, such as grasslands (related to “climate” regions)

Biomass is mass of living organisms (= phytomass + zoomass, which is approximately equal to phytomass alone) (mass/volume; mass/area)

Primary productivity is amount of plant matter produced [by photosynthesis] (per area per time)

            Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is total production

            Net Primary Production (NPP) = GPP-respiration losses

Hawaiian CO2 curve and its wiggles representing photosynthesis (reduction of CO2) and respiration (increase in CO2) related to “seasonal biosphere” where there is big difference in winter and summer conditions.  This occurs at high latitudes around the world, but most of the terrestrial plants at high latitudes are in the N. Hemisphere, so it shows the greatest “amplitude” of wiggles (difference between maximum and minimum in each wiggle).  Colors of Life (seasonal greening of the world related to productivity)

Global Carbon Cycle- major reservoirs are the ocean, land plants and soils, and the atmosphere.  Major fluxes are photosynthesis (from atmosphere to plants), respiration (from plants and soils to atmosphere), dissolution (from atmosphere to ocean) and evasion (from ocean to atmosphere).  Fossil-fuel emissions are another flux (transferring CO2 from lithosphere to atmosphere) and although small relative to natural fluxes into the atmosphere, they are very important because the ocean and biosphere cannot take it all up, so atmospheric CO2 is rising.

Activity #9 on beef consumption and plant production needed to “grow” the beef being consumed, meat production and greenhouse gas emissions, fast food.

 

Oct. 18:

Midterm Exam handed back; add 7 adjustment points to your raw score to get the recorded score.

Review of question on Activity #9: it takes 10 times as much primary production (lowest trophic level; made up of plants) to support the herbivore trophic level, ie, it would take 400 pounds of grain to “grow” 40 pounds of beef.

Net primary productivity (NPP) = GPP(gross primary productivity) – respiration loss

                                                                Respiration loss is about ½ GPP

            Aquatic: 125g d.m./m2/y         to         2500g/ m2/y

                           (open ocean)                    (algal beds, reefs)

           

            Terrestrial: 10g d.m./ m2/y          to      300g/ m2/y                   to                     400g/ m2/y

                                 (desert)                           (tropical rain forests)               (tropical wet lands)

            (where “g d.m.” is grams of dry matter)

Coral reefs are like the “rain forests of the ocean” in terms of productivity.  They are damaged or threatened by:

1) Hurricanes

2) Humans (excess nutrients, dynamite fishing, aquarium tropical fish trade, overfishing of starfish predators and algae and seaweed eating fish)

3) Change in environment (salinity, clarity, pH, temperature)

       The pH change could be toward increasing acidity as more CO2 dissolves in the water (rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations)

       The current dieback observed in coral reefs may be a result of several factors, often hard to isolate.  Coral reefs may be reduced/killed by future warming of the ocean, but coral species are not equally susceptible to the conditions forcing coral bleaching, so the relative abundance of coral species may change and reefs may persist

Invasive species come from different locations, in many cases different contintents.  Invasive species in US may be responsible for over $100 billion in losses each year.  Examples:

Buffelgrass (from Africa, introduced to US in the 1940s) and cheatgrass (from Eurasia about 100 years ago) a big problem in western states because they capture water and nutrients that would otherwise be used by the native plants.  Both grasses also promote wildfire, the consequence of which may be the death of native trees and bushes, and the continued expansion of these grasses.  Warming may help buffelgrass to expand because it is better adapted to warm temperatures, and rising atmospheric CO2 may provide cheatgrass a further competitive advantage.

Zebra mussel were introduced into the Great Lakes from ship ballast in the 1980s, and are now spread throughout the Great Lakes and other nearby river systems including the Mississippi River.  ZM’s are prolific filter feeders and filter fine organisms and particles out of the water, which removes the food for some fish species.  Also, they encrust pipe taking up water and boats.  Climate warming is expected to help them extend their range northward.

Change of Seasons- seasons may be shifting and expanding as a result of global warming.

       Phenology is the study of timing of recurring biologic phases such as budbreak, flowering, first leaf unfolding, leaf fall, migration, hibernation, emergence, and breeding.  Phenology can be linked to carbon and water cycling and energy of biosystems.

       Lilacs in US appear to be flowering about 3-4 days earlier now than the first half of the 20th Century. 

       Growing season in the US is forecast to lengthen 15-60 days in the US with a 3C global warming.

       A US Phenology network is coordinating and tabulating this information for several species, and other networks exist outside the US.

Activity #10, avoiding the use of “there is”, “there were”, “there are”, “there had been”, etc in writing.

In middle of class there was student survey regarding the class so far- instructors will get feedback.



  Oct 23rd:  Lecture slides are here.  Elmo notes are here.  A link to the EOS article describing the 2007 melt season in Greenland is here.
Oct 25th:  Lecture slides are here.

Oct. 30th: Lecture slides are here.  Elmo notes are here.
Nov. 1st: Lecture slides are here.  Elmo notes are here.

Nov. 6th:

Hypothetical logistic population growth curve stages=> 1. lag, 2. exponential, 3. stationary, 4. death (crash of population)

“Carrying capacity”= optimum population that can be sustained, and depends on natural resources (incl. food), energy, waste, interactions)

Plate tectonics and types of plate boundaries (plates colliding = “convergent” boundary; plates moving apart = “divergent” boundary; plates sliding past each other = “transform” boundary).  Caused by convection (flow) in upper mantle. Contributes to lateral heterogeneous distribution of chemicals across the Earth’s surface. Boundaries associated with earthquakes and volcanoes.

In many cases, besides earthquakes and volcanoes, the location of ore deposits of specific metals/elements is related to plate tectonic and plate boundaries.  The richness of metal resources of a country is dictated by their current and past position with respect to plate tectonics ore-forming processes, and other ore-forming processes such as related to climate.  For example, western “porphyry” deposits associated with former convergent plate boundaries have given the US high reserves of copper and molybdenum.  Ore deposits of some elements may be as much related to climate as plate tectonics (aluminum).  Price of minerals such as copper will determine the extent of mining that takes place (or might take place).

Energy demand of world is now overwhelmingly met with fossil fuels; nuclear, hydropower, windpower, and direct solar power make only a small contribution to those demands.

Reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are enough to sustain us well into future, but their distribution is variable, for example US has large reserves of coal and natural gas, but not oil. World reserves of coal and oil would last about 125-200 years at current rate of usage.  However, much lower reserves of oil compared to coal portend serious problems in the very near future.  In the 1970s M. King Hubbert (petroleum geologist) predicted the world peak production of oil in the mid-1990s.  Although it may be occurring now, or will occur within a few years, prices will subsequently spiral upward, and petroleum use is firmly entrenched in activities of world societies.

Activity 13, done as group discussing raw materials and energy aspects of common consumer goods.

 


Nov. 8:

Quiz 5 first 20 minutes; turn in Term Paper.

Some final thoughts on energy resources; A Crude Awakening and Peak Oil videos (2 min. each) (Full peak oil video, about 55 minutes)

Population and Resources- Forests and Deforestation:

Land-use changes (urbanization; conversion of land to grazing, agriculture; dedication of land to transportation [roads] or energy-flooding-resource concerns [dams/reservoirs])

Major mechanism of land-use change is deforestation

First forests in Devonian (about 400 my ago), but perhaps largest past forests were 300-350 my ago [Carboniferous], 40-100 my ago [Cretaceous]. evidence of which is found in coal beds.  Although many of the tree species in the Earth’s early forests not longer exist, there are some descendants, many of which are diminutive in size.

Modern forests- 4-5 billion hectares world wide, estimates vary depending on definitions of forests and woodlands

40-50% of tropical forests (S. America, Asia, Africa) have been cut in last 200 years, ie, very rapid deforestation (India, Indonesia, Brazil have greatest deforestation); tropical forests may have distinct wet/dry seasons related to the position of the ITCZ

Reasons for deforestation: debt repayment (some woods are a very valuable commodity); resettlement (the only land available to poor may be forested areas that they must work by hand to own); conversion of forest to pasture; international logging; hydropower (impounding water behind dam can inundate forests); fuelwood (cooking and heating)

Tropical forests (India, Indonesia, Brazil have greatest deforestation; Japan, USA among the biggest importers of tropical wood); tropical forest characterized by great biodiversity, including diversity with height; a genetic “storehouse” possibly containing many new compounds that could become cures and treatments for our illnesses and ailments (“Tropical Pharmacy”); about 30% of all terrestrial NPP; contains 1/3 of all carbon in terrestrial biomass, but soils only contain a small fraction (4%) of all carbon in soils.  Fate could be linked to provisions of the Kyoto protocol and the concept of carbon credits in return for greenhouse gas emissions.



Nov. 13:

Deforestation (cont’d)

Deforestation in U.S.- Great Lakes forest fires of Oct. 8-11, 1871.  Forest was considered inexhaustible resource by settlers and commercial interests moving eastward from East Coast from early 1800s to Minnesota in late 1800s.  Combination of unusually dry climate, common occurrence of fires and sudden extremely windy conditions resulted in forest fires that burned over 2 million hectares, killing over 1200 people in Wisconsin (Peshtigo-Williamsville) and hundreds more in Michigan (same dates as Great Chicago Fire).

Reading of account of human devastation in the aftermath of the Peshtigo fire.

Begin Soil degradation material with generalized statements on water and soil problems from the philosopher Jack Handy.

On-site costs (loss of nutrients and water) and off-site costs (sedimentation of rivers and lakes and adverse effects on aquatic organisms) of erosion in US might be $44B annually ($400B for whole world).

Historical and ancient historical observations of water/soil perturbations- Attica (Greece) deforestation and grazing 2000 years ago; salinity impacts on agriculture in Mesopotamia and Upper Nile civilizations thousands of years ago.

Natural events impacting soils= floods,landslides,glaciers,wind,subsidence,drought,waves.

Anthropogenic acivities impacting soils= mining,agriculture,logging,dams,transportation, subsidence,wells.

Population and Waste

Radiative forcing by greenhouse gases- our understanding is “very high” that contributions to global warming by greenhouse gases have been important associated with inputs of CO2, CH4, and N2O.  The “Global Warming Potential” (GWP) of methane (CH4) is about 20 times that of CO2 and the GWP of N2O is about 300 times that of CO2. 

Anthropogenic sources of

CO2: industry, autos, land-use change/deforestation, wildfires and biomass burning

N2O: industry, autos, feedlots, fertilizers, wildfires and biomass burning

CH4: rice paddies, cattle, natural gas from wells and distribution system, natural gas from coal mines and landfills, wildfires and biomass burning.

Activity 14- group activity to (a) think of 6 alternative sources of energy other than fossil fuels, and which are related to solar (directly or indirectly) [for example, wind power is derived from solar energy causing differential heating of the Earth’s surface], and (b) come up with a 5-point plan to reduce GH gas emissions (2 points related to CO2, and the other 3 pts related to CH4 and N2O).


Nov. 15:

Photochemical smog: formed naturally during lightning discharges; formed largely artificially in presence of nitrogen oxides, VOCs and sunlight; however, in natural environments where there are NOx and VOCs (like terpenes from plants) photochemical smog could without human inputs; more likely to be formed in winter in large northern cities, but plenty of sunlight in cities such as LA, Phoenix and Mexico City to form ozone throughout the year; reduction of urban ozone possible by reducing concentrations of reactants, especially VOCs and nitrogen oxides many fuel pumps now designed to reduce loss of fuel vapors

Despite the best intent of “The solution to pollution is dilution”, a build-up of air pollutants is favored by very stable atmospheric conditions (reducing vertical movement) associated with temperature inversions

Auto emissions usually check for particulates, unburned hydrocarbons (“HC” or VOCs), and CO; catalytic converters on automobiles are designed to convert CO to CO2, VOCs to H2O and CO2, and NOx to N2; strong oxidizing capacity of ozone can affect respiratory system, degrade chlorophyll in plants, break down rubber products (tires, seals, belts, electrical cords)

Natural sources exist for emission of nitrogen oxide, sulfur oxide, VOCs (such as terpene) and even ozone itself (lightning).

Acid rain (more properly “acid precipitation” or “acid deposition”)

pH scale; acid rain often defined when pH<5-5.2.  The pH when background atmospheric CO2 dissolves to form weak carbonic acid is about 5.6 (much more acid than neutral pH of 7), and sometimes other natural acids including organic acids can make the pH a little lower; thus rain from “clean” areas is slightly acidic); effects on “cultural heritage”, materials such as metals/marble, aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial systems.

“buffering" (neutralization) of acid rain in carbonate terrain, whereas greatest negative impacts in granitic terrain such as the Northeast and Canada.

Even if SO2 emissions were reduced, there are still large NOx emissions across the US (the highest in Texas and Cal.)

Prospects for worldwide future emissions of NOx and SO2; “cap and trade” program of 1995 and its influence on SO2 emissions from utilities in the US.

Stratospheric ozone- the “good” ozone (O3)is very effective in absorbing incoming UV; it is destroyed in reactions with Cl (freons, CFC)

A strong decrease in stratospheric ozone concentration above Antarctica has occurred since  1970; large increase in extent of ozone depletion above Antarctica- this is “ozone hole” (unrelated to global warming); increased UV-B reaching surface (because there is less ozone in stratosphere to absorb it); Montreal Protocol in 1987 to stop manufacture and trade of CFCs and other chlorine-containing compounds

 



Nov. 20th:  Lecture slides are here. No Elmo slides drawn in class.

Nov. 27th:  Lecture slides are here.  Elmo slides drawn in class are hereHere is the NPR Consumer Consequences Game we played in class.

Nov. 29th: Lecture slides are here.  Elmo slides drawn in class are here
Dec 4th:  Review slides are here.  Elmo slides drawn in class are here.

Back to Syllabus/Schedule.