Motivation: While the present-day dynamics of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are broadly understood, predictability is limited, the long-term natural variability is poorly known, and the effect of greenhouse warming on the tropical ocean-atmosphere system is currently in much debate.  In this course, we will discuss the following topics:

1. Physics of ENSO: Theory, phenomenology, predictive modeling, global impacts.
2. Paleoclimatology of ENSO: This semester, we will focus on mechanisms of decadal climate variability.
   
3. ENSO in the greenhouse world: How is ENSO expected to evolve as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase?
   

Goals: By the conclusion of this course students will have:

1. Gained a solid understanding of the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere system.
   
2. Critically evaluated the relevant climate dynamics and paleoclimatological literature.
   
3. Communicated ideas (their own and those of others) and debated controversial issues.
   

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Logistics

Instructor: Michael Evans , Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research , 214 W. Stadium .  ph 626-2897;  email: mevans@ltrr.arizona.edu .
Office hours: Thursdays 1-2pm, W. Stadium 214, or by appointment.  I will try to answer email correspondence within 24 hours.

Location and Time:  Tree-Ring Lab-West Seminar Room (Rm. 20), Wednesdays, 3-4:30pm.  Our introductory meeting will be on January 11, 2006.  Stay tuned for meeting time/date changes depending on student availability, to be fixed no later than Jan 12, 2006.

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Prerequisites: An interest in the science of global climate change. Prior or current coursework in oceanography, meteorology and climatology will be helpful, but we will begin with fundamentals.

Additional reading and course materials: I will provide them electronically here; alternatively as handouts in class.  Please let me know if computer and Internet access is a problem for you.

Workload: A commitment to reading the assigned literature (approximately 4-6 hrs/week) and active participation in discussions is absolutely essential.  To provide some baseline concepts, I will lecture on occasion, but otherwise, students will trade off presenting the week's topics.

More background reading: if you'd like more background on ocean-atmosphere dynamics and paleoclimatology, see these excellent texts to get started (you can borrow many from me for short periods; also check them out from the library):

• R.S. Bradley, Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary.  San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1999.
  
• Diaz, H. and Markgraf, V. (eds.)  El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, Eds., Cambridge Univ. Press.
• Gill, A.  Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics.  New York: Academic Press, 1982.
• Holton, J.R.  Introduction to Dynamical Meteorology.  New York: Academic Press, 
• Philander, S.G.H. El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation.  New York, Academic Press, 1990.
• Pond, S. and G.L. Pickard.  Introduction to dynamical oceanography.   Tarrytown, NY: Pergamon(Elsevier), 1989 (2nd ed.).
• Tomczak, M. amd J. S. Godfrey.  Regional Oceanography: An introduction.  Tarrytown, NY: Pergamon(Elsevier), 1994.
  

Expectations:  For 2 units of credit, students will read the literature assigned for class and participate actively in discussions; students will lead class at least twice, and preferably three times, during the course of the semester.  See the evaluation rubric for what I expect from your participation in the course.  I will provide constructive feedback on your work throughout the semester to help you improve.  Depending on the number of participants, expect to lead class at least twice during the semester.  For 3 units of credit: In addition to the 2-unit requirements, an 8-10 page term paper, including critical discussion of current literature, on a topic agreed to in advance with the instructor, will be required.

• Suggestions for organizing your presentations are here.
• A grading rubric (what I expect from you in class) is here.
• Structure and expectations for the term paper are here.
  

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Acknowledgments

• This course was motivated by a workshop with this title, organized by Dan Schrag and David Battisti and sponsored by NOAA, Seabrooke Island, NC, in Spring 2000.
• Thanks to Benno Blumenthal (IRI) for providing easy access to climate data via the LDEO Data Catalog and Ingrid.
  

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Syllabus (subject to revision)
 

When	Big Picture	Topic	Reading Assignment	discussion leader
January 11th	The Big Picture	Organizational meeting; Introduction (pdf;ppt; html)	1.  bookmark course website 2.  return class survey 3.  email me which discussions you'd like to lead	MNE
January 18th	Present-day ENSO	Phenomenology (pdf; ppt; html)	Cane (1983) Rasmusson and Wallace (1983)	MNE
January 25th		Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics (pdf)	Bjerknes (1969)  RQ Barsugli's delayed oscillator animation	J. Criscio (summary by MNE)
February 1st		Predictive Modeling; 1997-8, 2002-3 events  (pdf)	Zebiak and Cane (1987)  RQ	M. Decker
February 8th		Modern ENSO theory and observations; 2005-6 diagnosis; 2006-7 prognosis (pdf)	McPhaden (1999)  RQ TAO array data exercise	MNE
February 15th		Teleconnection Theory and observations (pdf)	Tribbia (1991); RQ Redmond and Koch (1991) Teleconnection data exercise	S. Bieda, J. Conroy
February 22nd		Regional Teleconnections: Observations (pdf)	Gutzler et al. (2002); Higgins et al. (1999)  RQ	J. Conroy, S. Bieda
March 1st	Paleoclimatology of ENSO	Decadal variability: Paradigm (pdf)	Fedorov and Philander (2000)  RQ; optional: Fedorov and Philander (2001)	T. Ault
March 8th		Decadal variability: Proxy observations (pdf)	Gedalof and Smith (2001); Evans et al. (2001a); RQ optional: Evans et al. (2001b) Proxy data analysis exercise	MNE
March 15th	Spring break - no class
March 22nd		Decadal variability: Historical data and analyses (pdf)	Quinn et al. (1992)	Guest Speaker: Henry Diaz, NOAA/CDC and LTRR
March 29th		Decadal variability: Models (pdf; pdf)	Karspeck and Cane (2002);  Schneider and Cornuelle (2005); RQ	P. Shaw, T. Ault
April 5th		Decadal-scale Pacific-North American Climate Variability and Predictability (pdf; pdf)	Venzke et al. (2000); Pierce (2001); RQ	S. Bieda, P. Shaw
April 12th	ENSO in a Greenhouse World	Q&A: Review of ENSO physics Observations: past century (pdf)	Cane et al. (1997) (for background, see Kaplan et al. (1998)  RQ	J. Criscio
April 19th		Simple model: forced chaos (pdf)	Khatiwala et al. (2001)  RQ	N. Johnson
April 26th		GCM studies (pdf; pdf)	Collins (2005); Timmerman et al. (1999); RQ (for background, see Bacher et al. (1998) and Dai et al. (2001))	M. Decker, N. Johnson
May 3rd	The Big Picture	Last class - Wrap up (pdf).	Review all	Class

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